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Dhoom2 :BO analysis with Mean and Confidence level of 95%

Posted by Ruderesh

Week

Meanof %Drop from Last Week

ConfidenceLevel(95.0%)

TotalExpected on Upper Limit

TotalExpected on Lower Limit

BOITotal

2

0.35

0.07

20.07

25.02

22.60

3

.44

.05

11.5

13.8

10.75

5

.50

.07

4.51

6.16

4.5

6

.10

.33

2.55

5.5

2.77

7

.39

.07

1.46

1.89

1.75

8

.32

.13

.96

1.42

.95

Total (week2 to week 7): Considering Upper Limit:41 Cr Considering Lower Limit:53 Cr BOI Total:43 Cr BOI Total is towards lower side and approx. equals to total considering upper limit. Now if I consider my total from week 1 for d2 (34.2 Cr) and apply %drop on total calculated on this data,not considering the BOI data:

Week

Total Expected on Upper Limit

Total Expected on Lower Limit

2

19.67

24.51

3

10.03

14.95

4

4.31

7.87

5

2.46

7.58

6

1.33

3.74

7

0.73

1.53

Total

38.53

60.18

BO ANALYSIS: COnsidering Mean And Confidence Level

Posted by Ruderesh

For Guru Week Two: (See the detail Figures in Article published on 27 Jan) Mean of % Drop: .53% Confidence Level (95%)=.13% It means with this sample and data, I am 95% confident that mean of % drop will falls between (.53+.13) and ((.53-.13). Upper Limit of Drop =.66% Lower limit of Drop =.40% So Total Expected(Considering BOI): For Upper Limit=5.98 Cr For Lower Limit=10.74 Cr So Total Expected(Considering IBOS): For Upper Limit=6.94Cr For Lower Limit=12.4Cr These both values are much more comparable to actual figures put forward by these sites.

Guru 2nd Week Total from IBOS and BOI

Posted by Ruderesh

Second Week Total of Guru by IBOS = 10.2 Cr Which means % drop of 51.2% Total expected by me(See last Article) 8.8 cr So the Total put forward by IBOS is 15% more than What I had expected. Second Week Total of Guru by BOI= 9.6 Cr Which means % drop of 46.3% Total expected by me(See last Article) 7.5 cr So the Total put forward by BOI is 28% more than What I had expected.

Salaam-E-Ishq

Posted by Ruderesh

Recommended:Yes Enjoyed:Yes Good Things: 1) Govinda,Vidya,Anil,Akshaya,Juhi,Isha and Sohail 2) --Govinda's Track:what a natural Comadiean he is.If he got bad treatment in Bhagam Bhag,go and see him.You will luv him. --Anil's Track:A bored 40+ guy,wants thrill in life. -- Five scenes of Isha and Sohail:one word Hilarious. --John and Vidya:Most Lovaable couple in the movie.Vidya's Performance in Last scene is great. 3)Music: All songs are great.Climax song by kher is great. Bad Things: 1)Length of Movie:can easily trimmed.Ist Half an hour goes in intro only. 2)Salmaan Khan:why he speaks Hindi with accent also.Priyanka's Character reminds Rakhi Sambant of Big Brother. OverAll Rating:*** out of *****

These three men prop up an industry

Posted by Ruderesh

Source: TOI Date: January 21, 2007 Bollywood may be a 5,000-crore industry but only three of its stars are truly ‘saleable’. Meena Iyer on how the star system and big money are putting the film industry on an increasingly dangerous curve For an industry that produces around 200 films annually, and where much hype is generated around ‘big’ ventures, you’d have thought the place would be teeming with saleable stars. The truth, however, is that Bollywood has precisely three actors who can sell a film on their name- Shah Rukh Khan, Hrithik Roshan and Aamir Khan. “Statistics have proved that others like Saif Ali Khan, Akshay Kumar, Salman Khan, Amitabh Bachchan, Abhishek Bachchan and John Abraham have to be sold in clever packages,’’ says a trade analyst. Of course, if the film itself is appreciated—like a Lage Raho Munnabhai, Malamaal Weekly, Gangster, Khosla Ka Ghosla or Corporate, all of whom made it to the 2006 hit list—the stars don’t matter. “But apart from Lage Raho..., a huge hit, if you total the collection of all the others, it still doesn’t add up to what one Hrithik Roshan or Aamir Khan film collected," says the trade pundit. The reality then is that corporates and independent producers jointly have just three or, at most, five actors to fall back on for truely safe returns. Those who can’t afford the fancy price tag that the eligible three command have the choice of picking up John Abraham, Sanjay Dutt, Ajay Devgan or then opt for package deals with Emraan Hashmi, Shiney Ahuja, Fardeen Khan and Viviek Oberoi. Manish Jha, whose recently released Anwar met with a disastrous fate at the box-office, says it is clear that whether in Bollywood or Hollywood, a superstar is necessary to set the cash registers ringing. “The star phenomenon rules globally,’’ he says. “Since European cinema hasn’t produced too many superstars, it lags behind Hollywood, and its far more critically acclaimed cinema does not find a market. Hollywood has a wider reach because the Hollywood superstar is well known in three-quarters of the world.’’ However, Hollywood has something which Bollywood can’t lay claim to—many more stars, in fact almost 25, who can take the onus of a film entirely on their shoulders. “It’s not just about the number of stars,’’ says Ronnie Screwala of UTV. “The kind of diversity that Hollywood has is amazing.’’ Corporate honchos admit that the film business needs many more saleable stars than it has at present. “Bollywood is playing with huge numbers by way of films, but we have very limited bankable actors,’’ says Sandeep Bhargava of Studio 18. “So it is becoming virtually impossible to meet the demands of the market.’’ The limited number of saleable names gives rise to another problem, says a trade source—unreasonable demands on the part of the star. “Akshay Kumar backed out of his multi-crore deals with Adlabs because he felt he should be getting bigger money,’’ he points out. [b]Hrithik Roshan too has signed a 35-crore deal with Adlabs, but rumours are that given his superhit status in 2006, his remuneration will see a sharp hike after the first project is complete.[/b] Salman Khan has rumouredly demanded a price hike from Subhash Ghai before the shooting even begins. In other words, the big names can now demand, and producers will have to comply. “It is certain producers themselves who perpetuated this star system,’’ says Pritish Nandy of PNC. “In a bid to outdo one another, they started paying the stars absurd sums of money just to lock them in. I had commented then that when you play the game this way, you should be prepared to get hurt someday.’’ Nandy is of the opinion that if a producer backs a good script, he can free himself of the shackles of stardom. Ditto Mahesh Bhatt. “What is a star but someone elevated by 500 frightened, chicken-hearted producers?’’ he says. “Most producers are not film-makers, they are star cronies. Corporates sign these actors for big money, have huge marketing budgets, make their movies into an event, and confuse this with genius. But this is going to lead to guaranteed disaster. With the exception of a few, none of the stars can guarantee even an initial. I wouldn’t pay Rs 10 lakh to some of the guys the corporates have signed for Rs 5 crore.’’ Established names like Ram Gopal Varma are now forced to work with rank newcomers like Prashant Raj because star prices have shot through the roof. And though Varma defends his decision to cast a newcomer with logic like “He has the eyes and the intensity I need for my character’’, the fact is that he has to make do with what is available. For, the saleable actors are only willing to accommodate the Chopras (Yash, Aditya, Vinod) and perhaps a Johar. Of course, optimistic people like Nandy and Screwala feel the situation will improve because Bollywood scripts are evolving slowly but surely. [b]But till then, two Khans and one Roshan are the Pied Pipers. And the fraternity called producers are rats who have to dance to their tunes.

D2 B.O. Analysis and Considering Data from Two Sites

Posted by Ruderesh

One of main conclusion drawn from the Dhoom 2 Box office analysis is that We can use detailed number from Indiafm.com to get approximation of total number put forward by BoxofficeIndia.com. Weekly comparision shows that variance between the Total "Calculated by applying %Drop ,which has been calculated from detailed numbers of Indiafm site,on the Last week Total of Boxofficeindia.com" and the Total of BOI for the Week is +-5% (Except for week 6) For Week 1: BOI Total: 34.9 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:34.2Cr Difference= 34.9-34.2=0.7Cr Difference%=(0.7/34.2)*100=02.04% For Week 2: BOI Total: 22.6 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:23.03Cr Difference= 22.6-23.03=-0.43Cr Difference%=-(0.43/23.03)*100=-01.04% For Week 3: BOI Total: 10.75 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:10.85Cr Difference= 10.75-10.85=-0.1Cr Difference%=-(0.1/10.85)*100=-0.9% For Week 5: BOI Total: 4.5 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:4.85Cr Difference= 4.5-4.85=-0.35Cr Difference%=-(0.35/4.85)*100= -07% For Week 6: BOI Total: 2.77Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:3.38 Cr Difference= 2.77-3.38=-0.61Cr Difference%=(0.6/3.38)*100= -18% For Week 7: BOI Total: 1.75 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:1.66 Cr Difference= 1.75-1.66=0.9Cr Difference%=(0.9/1.66)*100= 05% For Week 8: BOI Total: .94 Cr (Updated Today) Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:.95 cr Difference= .95-.94=0.01Cr Difference%=(0.01/34.2)*100= 01% This is important as One can use detailed number and can approximate Final Total. My another cross analysis of data will further clarify this

Comparing Average is Misleading Also..........

Posted by Ruderesh

Comparing Avg is very very misleading also See Guru vs D2 collections in mumbai Circuit mumbai 67% Nasik 60% Pune 89% Nasik 60% Ahamdabad 114% Jamnagar 67 % but can one say that 67% of mumbai is equaly important to 90% of Pune. Nasik 60% can be compared to 114% of Ahemdabad. This can lead to very very manipulated numbers. So Simply, Here maths is not that simple, but comparing many numbers and trends from different regions one can put a figure for the region. hummm more work to do in next few days..... I am thinking of making some formula to calculate the total figure taking many facts like territory, prints, city size and capacity, single screen or multiplex.. Give me time guys .....

GURU REVIEW

Posted by Ruderesh

From Times of India There was Gandhi, there was Nehru and then there was Guru Kant Desai, one more name that needs to be added amongst the roster that boasts ‘Architects of India.’ And in case you still don’t know who Guru Bhai is, let’s just leave you with a few FAQs. Guru Bhai was India’s first textile magnate who grew from humble origins and dreamt of setting up a factory that was bigger than Burma Shell. He towered over the Mumbai skyline with his polyester fabric that became the national fabric in a post-khadi, pre-globalisation era. And Mani Ratnam takes up this ‘inspired’ tale to script an ode to this messiah of the middle class, who broke the rules, twisted the system, rubbished the red tape and raced ahead, with impunity. Yes, Mani has dared to present the top industrialist as a man who introduced corporate crime in the lexicon of Indian industry. Guru Bhai’s business mantra was murky. He bribed politicians, smuggled machinery, evaded sundry taxes and used people for profit. In short, he was the perfect capitalist who created wealth any which way, even if it involved marrying a woman for the dowry she would bring. His justification? The wealth was for the public, because he was part of the public and if he hadn’t broken the law, the great Indian middle class (the millions of shareholders who grew rich along with him) would still be non-existent. And that’s where the film slips. Although the director valiantly lifts the lid off corporate crime, he suddenly cowers in the end and creates a hero out a man who justifies every fraud in the name of public good. It is the moral ambivalence of the film which somehow leaves you dissatisfied, for isn’t all cinema meant to be a moral fable? Till the very end, you seem to keep remembering what Guru Bhai’s brother-in-law said when he left him midway in his grandiose ventures. The disgusted brother-in-law walked off branding Guru as a complete mercenary who cared only about money, not people. Guru had no answers for him! Nor for us. Cinematically, the film is quintessential Mani. The frames are stupendous with Rajiv Menon’s camera working wonders, whether it be Mumbai, Pondicherry or Istanbul. The combination of AR Rahman and Gulzar create magic with melody and Abhishek Bachchan puts his heart and soul into a dream role that sees him grow from a gawky teenager to a wizened adult. Sometimes however, it does seem the role demands too much from him, specially in the climax which ends up ekdum thanda. Aishwarya too is just okay and fails to register the growth in her character. The first half of the film is intensely dramatic as it traces the rise of simpleton Guru from a small time salesman in Istanbul to a textile honcho in Mumbai who just wanted to do ‘bijnas’. It is the second half which becomes prolonged and repetitive with the drama being reduced to a conflict between the archetypal capitalist and the communist — a newspaper owner with leftist leanings (Mithun Chakraborty) and his star reporter (Madhavan) who doggedly follows the unveil-Guru beat. In between, he falls in love with his employee’s dying daughter (what’s Vidya Balan doing in a wheelchair?) and takes off to make dal takda for her. He’s a crusader in all kind of roles, you see! In the end, Guru is an important film as it tackles a fresh subject and raises a pertinent query about India’s accelerating corporate juggernaut.

Big Kite Small Kite

Posted by Ruderesh

From NDTV: There are so many kites in this sky. Every Friday these kites try to fly high on sky, try to cut other kites. One of these kites is flying since last 30 years and still flying no one had been able to cut this kite. But these days one kite is flying very high. This is the kite of Hrithik Roshan. He is superstar of today’s generation. 30-year-old kite has now bring one small kite also. This kite wants to cut down Hrithik kite. But does not look like that it will ever cut that kite. Hrithik knows when to fly his kite. He does not come out on every second day to fly his kite. He has the ability to judge the airflow and conditions. He knows when the sky will be shining. So no doubt that his kite is today’s winning and best kite and has the ability to be the one of best kite ever flown in this sky