BOX OFFICE Analysis : Apne

Step 3: These centers are not chosen according to

sampling method (most likely) . Now considering

step 2 sample as complete set, I take three systematic

samples and three random samples to check that did

samples represent my set.

so if, this is big assumption,that the centers picked by taran's are unbiased(chances are there as not a single Punjab center is there) ,then the Apne may be between 56-68% of NL( 10% variance). i.e. 8.9 Cr to 10.9 Cr.

Main Assumptions: 1) Movie released in equal number of similar centers. 2) Prints are in proportion 3) That the centers picked by taran's are unbiased(chances are there as not a single Punjab center is there) Random Sample Number Table Used from Site:

http://www.health.state.pa.us/hpa/stats/techassist/probability.htm

From last 10 days, I was just thinking why this happen ...... A girl child was born in small tiny village in poor farmer family.She was first child of parents. They called her Gyana,"some one full of knowledge". Sooner she had three younger siblings. Two brothers and one sister. But some thing bad happen: mother of child died during the birth of youngest brother. Father remarry after some time as it’s become difficult for him to handle four children alone. Stepmother came into family. Life again starts moving.. Few years’ latter faith again struck. Sister dies due to some illness. She console herself and again starts living life. She was now around 16.Father fixed her marriage to a nice looking army guy. Looking for future happiness she marry but happiness was not for her again, husband dies during job and now she was child widow. Father took her back, did not want his daughter’s life destroyed, even thought about remarry her. But succumbs to pressure from society. Girl accepted the faith, tried to find happiness in her siblings. She starts bringing her siblings up. Life keeps moving. 20 years latter, her favorite real youngest brother was going to marry. She again looks happier. Did I miss some thing earlier? She was ravishing beauty. Two days before marriage, her brother comes home but not as normal guy, but some one who has lost his mental balance. Faith goes against her again. How sad she has been only she had known or her God. She had, till now learnt to hide her pain and unhappiness. Father married the brother but he never cures till he died, much latter. Her nephews and neices from him were now her life. Life keeps moving, seeing her brother tied in chain or seeing him beating his wife and children were not shock to her any more. Meanwhile her other brother, his family, family of her mentally imbalance brother, all goes against father and stepmother. For them its stepmother who was responsible and they moved out of home. She did not move away from her father, though she remains loyal to her brothers also. She never even put allegations on her stepbrother, her third and youngest brother. Now she was an old woman of around 60.Her father died. She continues to live with her stepmother. Both were now like old friend, whatever one can say but they have some kind of understanding and respect for the other. After 10 years latter, her nephew, elder son of her mentally imbalanced brother died in car accident. Life had struck again. Chances of finding happiness lost again. Two years latter brother also dies. She had regret of not seeing his face last time because his family did not inform her regarding taking him to hospital. She moves with her elder brother now. Daughter from her other nephew now was center of her life (from two of her real brothers, one does not had any child. Youngest mentally imbalanced brother had four children, two sons and two daughters. Elder brother adopted youngest son.) Till at age of 74 she keeps doing all work of home, from making food to working in fields. March 24, 2007: Her nephew, son of stepbrother, asked her why her face looks twisted. She said I don’t know. She looks very ill. But still she was doing all household cores. March 25,2007: Found that she has a brain tumor. Small tumor. She was not informed about it, neither the options nor implications. Nothing. March 26-April 05: Her conditions deteriorates but.. April 06 2007: Early in morning on Good Friday she dies. There are lots of why in her story. But the one, “WHY” which is hurting me, is that why she had not given the chance to live her end of life according to her wishes. Why she was not informed. May be she had not lived much better, may be she had died on the same day, but she had right to know. She may have many last wishes. She was not asking even for monetary help as she had lot of money, from family pension of her husband, which is hardly withdrew, and property from in laws. She deserves better, much better. But faith betrayed her in her death also. But OH RAMA, Please Provide her Peace. Please provide her all love she deserves. ( My father is her youngest stepbrother)

Boxoffice trend analysis calculation can be very misleadings. Now indiafm.com ,after first week of guru reported certain centers. on basis of those centers,as I had shown in privious articles, I obtained the median of difference 40%.After applying this median I said that Guru will be 60 % of D2 so first week total can be approx 21 cr. After few weeks Indiafm.com reported other centers for guru as well. For the same reported centers (new ones) D2 total is 21033784 If i apply my earlier estimation total for guru for these centers should have been 12620270 But the total for these centers as per indiafm is 10273563 This total is 22% less than the approximation. These centers also shows that median of difference is 62%. means guru is just 38 % of D2 if we consider this new set of data. If i consider all same centers(centers reported earlier and latter on, new median comes out to 57%.It means makes Guru just 43% of D2.which is 15Cr So thats why the trend analysis can be misleading. But it also points out that 21 Cr for Guru in first week is immpossible and will be rearest condition. Guru was dull as compare to d2 in these small centers. May be BOI total 18 cr is right estimation.

Adjusting Guru Week One Box office Analysis:Considering No. of Prints In One of my Privious article, I calculated Guru Week One by comparing it with Dhoom 2 babul LRM and BB. In that Article I approximated Guru Week 1 as 20-21 Cr. In that article No of cinemas and prints have not taken into account. Another Major flaw was that as data is skewed (skewness of difference is 47,which is very high for the % of values.) So median should be the right parameter to us instead of avg. So I am again recalculating Totals based upon whatever data is available from Taran's indiafm.com Two assumptions taking into consideration are: 1) Both Films are shown in similar centers. 2)All prints in those centers are reported or proportion of reported print is same. For example if one movie is shown in Delhi with 100 prints and other is shown in delhi with 50 prints.Then either data is shown for 100 and 50 prints respectively or in same proportion that is 2:1. If the First assumption is true, only then we can calculate total on basis of trend obtained from detailed data.for example if one film is shown in 100 cites other in 50 cities only.Detailed data is available for 50 cities for two films to calculate difference. Now one can not apply the trend obtained on another cities for first movie as second movie is not shown in other 50 cities. Print issue has no problem as such if for reported centers shows data in proportion of actual prints circulated in city. One can obtain an approximate figure if one compare the same movie with 5 to 10 other movies. Guru Vs Dhoom2 Earlier Figure:22.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:21 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 40) As D2 was indeed released at more centers than Guru (D2 approx 700 cinemas, Guru 450 Cinemas), the 21 Cr will be highly unlikely situation for Guru to acheive) Guru Vs LRM: Earlier Figure:20.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:21 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 00) Guru Vs BB: Earlier Figure:20Cr Recalculated on base of median:19.7 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 06) Guru Vs Babul: Earlier Figure:19.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:16.6 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is -57) SEI WEEK ONE: Guru Vs SEI: Median of Difference (Guru-SEI)=20% SEI WEEK ONE=16.8Cr Guru WEEK ONE to WEEK THREE week one == 21 cr week 2 =8.4 cr (Median of diff. week1 and week2 =60%) week 3=4.8 cr (Median of diff. week1 and week2 =42%) Total Estimation by me = 21+8.4+4.8=34 Cr Total Estimation by BOI=32.7 Cr Total Estimation by IBOS=38.5 Cr

Guru Week 3== 5.23Cr My perdiction in article Guru week 3: B O Analysis (IBOSNETWORK.COM looks fake)was On basis of avg:5.6Cr considering Confidenced level(95%) and mean=4.8Cr-7.8Cr So the figures put by BOI looks more accurate and authenticated.My perdiction was calculated by considering detailed data given by indiafm.com.

Rediff.com (I luv the Heading) January 31, 2007 16:53 IST Surprised? We were wondering if we should post Big B's picture as Abhishek's voice. Abhishek seems to have lost his voice these days. Why else would his dad do all the talking for him after he got engaged to Ash? Papa B also doesn't seem to tire of saying that his son has excelled as an actor, post-Guru. He mentioned in an interview that when he was in Bangkok recently, a spectator referred to him as Abhishek's father. That, for him, was the proudest moment of his life. Abhishek is a good actor, there is little doubt about that. But should Papa B promote his son so much? Please comment.

Taking average drop 41% Total approximation (BOI)=.59*9.5= 5.6 Cr Considering Lower limit of Confidence Level(95%) Total approximation (BOI)=.85*9.6=7.8 Cr Considering Upper limit of Confidence Level(95%) Total approximation (BOI)=.5*9.6=4.8 Cr IBOS approximation is not carried out as they had put the figures.Which seems very high(looks like taking into considering the lower limit of Confidence level).All of major centers has been there is Indiafm list. from where ibos is getting other 3 cr Rs. is strange.Because other centers does not have that much potential and film is not even average in these centers

For Guru Week Two: (See the detail Figures in Article published on 27 Jan) Mean of % Drop: .53% Confidence Level (95%)=.13% It means with this sample and data, I am 95% confident that mean of % drop will falls between (.53+.13) and ((.53-.13). Upper Limit of Drop =.66% Lower limit of Drop =.40% So Total Expected(Considering BOI): For Upper Limit=5.98 Cr For Lower Limit=10.74 Cr So Total Expected(Considering IBOS): For Upper Limit=6.94Cr For Lower Limit=12.4Cr These both values are much more comparable to actual figures put forward by these sites.

Second Week Total of Guru by IBOS = 10.2 Cr Which means % drop of 51.2% Total expected by me(See last Article) 8.8 cr So the Total put forward by IBOS is 15% more than What I had expected. Second Week Total of Guru by BOI= 9.6 Cr Which means % drop of 46.3% Total expected by me(See last Article) 7.5 cr So the Total put forward by BOI is 28% more than What I had expected.

Recommended:Yes Enjoyed:Yes Good Things: 1) Govinda,Vidya,Anil,Akshaya,Juhi,Isha and Sohail 2) --Govinda's Track:what a natural Comadiean he is.If he got bad treatment in Bhagam Bhag,go and see him.You will luv him. --Anil's Track:A bored 40+ guy,wants thrill in life. -- Five scenes of Isha and Sohail:one word Hilarious. --John and Vidya:Most Lovaable couple in the movie.Vidya's Performance in Last scene is great. 3)Music: All songs are great.Climax song by kher is great. Bad Things: 1)Length of Movie:can easily trimmed.Ist Half an hour goes in intro only. 2)Salmaan Khan:why he speaks Hindi with accent also.Priyanka's Character reminds Rakhi Sambant of Big Brother. OverAll Rating:*** out of *****

Source: TOI Date: January 21, 2007 Bollywood may be a 5,000-crore industry but only three of its stars are truly ‘saleable’. Meena Iyer on how the star system and big money are putting the film industry on an increasingly dangerous curve For an industry that produces around 200 films annually, and where much hype is generated around ‘big’ ventures, you’d have thought the place would be teeming with saleable stars. The truth, however, is that Bollywood has precisely three actors who can sell a film on their name- Shah Rukh Khan, Hrithik Roshan and Aamir Khan. “Statistics have proved that others like Saif Ali Khan, Akshay Kumar, Salman Khan, Amitabh Bachchan, Abhishek Bachchan and John Abraham have to be sold in clever packages,’’ says a trade analyst. Of course, if the film itself is appreciated—like a Lage Raho Munnabhai, Malamaal Weekly, Gangster, Khosla Ka Ghosla or Corporate, all of whom made it to the 2006 hit list—the stars don’t matter. “But apart from Lage Raho..., a huge hit, if you total the collection of all the others, it still doesn’t add up to what one Hrithik Roshan or Aamir Khan film collected," says the trade pundit. The reality then is that corporates and independent producers jointly have just three or, at most, five actors to fall back on for truely safe returns. Those who can’t afford the fancy price tag that the eligible three command have the choice of picking up John Abraham, Sanjay Dutt, Ajay Devgan or then opt for package deals with Emraan Hashmi, Shiney Ahuja, Fardeen Khan and Viviek Oberoi. Manish Jha, whose recently released Anwar met with a disastrous fate at the box-office, says it is clear that whether in Bollywood or Hollywood, a superstar is necessary to set the cash registers ringing. “The star phenomenon rules globally,’’ he says. “Since European cinema hasn’t produced too many superstars, it lags behind Hollywood, and its far more critically acclaimed cinema does not find a market. Hollywood has a wider reach because the Hollywood superstar is well known in three-quarters of the world.’’ However, Hollywood has something which Bollywood can’t lay claim to—many more stars, in fact almost 25, who can take the onus of a film entirely on their shoulders. “It’s not just about the number of stars,’’ says Ronnie Screwala of UTV. “The kind of diversity that Hollywood has is amazing.’’ Corporate honchos admit that the film business needs many more saleable stars than it has at present. “Bollywood is playing with huge numbers by way of films, but we have very limited bankable actors,’’ says Sandeep Bhargava of Studio 18. “So it is becoming virtually impossible to meet the demands of the market.’’ The limited number of saleable names gives rise to another problem, says a trade source—unreasonable demands on the part of the star. “Akshay Kumar backed out of his multi-crore deals with Adlabs because he felt he should be getting bigger money,’’ he points out. [b]Hrithik Roshan too has signed a 35-crore deal with Adlabs, but rumours are that given his superhit status in 2006, his remuneration will see a sharp hike after the first project is complete.[/b] Salman Khan has rumouredly demanded a price hike from Subhash Ghai before the shooting even begins. In other words, the big names can now demand, and producers will have to comply. “It is certain producers themselves who perpetuated this star system,’’ says Pritish Nandy of PNC. “In a bid to outdo one another, they started paying the stars absurd sums of money just to lock them in. I had commented then that when you play the game this way, you should be prepared to get hurt someday.’’ Nandy is of the opinion that if a producer backs a good script, he can free himself of the shackles of stardom. Ditto Mahesh Bhatt. “What is a star but someone elevated by 500 frightened, chicken-hearted producers?’’ he says. “Most producers are not film-makers, they are star cronies. Corporates sign these actors for big money, have huge marketing budgets, make their movies into an event, and confuse this with genius. But this is going to lead to guaranteed disaster. With the exception of a few, none of the stars can guarantee even an initial. I wouldn’t pay Rs 10 lakh to some of the guys the corporates have signed for Rs 5 crore.’’ Established names like Ram Gopal Varma are now forced to work with rank newcomers like Prashant Raj because star prices have shot through the roof. And though Varma defends his decision to cast a newcomer with logic like “He has the eyes and the intensity I need for my character’’, the fact is that he has to make do with what is available. For, the saleable actors are only willing to accommodate the Chopras (Yash, Aditya, Vinod) and perhaps a Johar. Of course, optimistic people like Nandy and Screwala feel the situation will improve because Bollywood scripts are evolving slowly but surely. [b]But till then, two Khans and one Roshan are the Pied Pipers. And the fraternity called producers are rats who have to dance to their tunes.

One of main conclusion drawn from the Dhoom 2 Box office analysis is that We can use detailed number from Indiafm.com to get approximation of total number put forward by BoxofficeIndia.com. Weekly comparision shows that variance between the Total "Calculated by applying %Drop ,which has been calculated from detailed numbers of Indiafm site,on the Last week Total of Boxofficeindia.com" and the Total of BOI for the Week is +-5% (Except for week 6) For Week 1: BOI Total: 34.9 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:34.2Cr Difference= 34.9-34.2=0.7Cr Difference%=(0.7/34.2)*100=02.04% For Week 2: BOI Total: 22.6 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:23.03Cr Difference= 22.6-23.03=-0.43Cr Difference%=-(0.43/23.03)*100=-01.04% For Week 3: BOI Total: 10.75 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:10.85Cr Difference= 10.75-10.85=-0.1Cr Difference%=-(0.1/10.85)*100=-0.9% For Week 5: BOI Total: 4.5 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:4.85Cr Difference= 4.5-4.85=-0.35Cr Difference%=-(0.35/4.85)*100= -07% For Week 6: BOI Total: 2.77Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:3.38 Cr Difference= 2.77-3.38=-0.61Cr Difference%=(0.6/3.38)*100= -18% For Week 7: BOI Total: 1.75 Cr Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:1.66 Cr Difference= 1.75-1.66=0.9Cr Difference%=(0.9/1.66)*100= 05% For Week 8: BOI Total: .94 Cr (Updated Today) Total Approx. by comparing Detailed Numbers from IndiaFm with Detailed numbers of KANK and final Total of KANK by BOI:.95 cr Difference= .95-.94=0.01Cr Difference%=(0.01/34.2)*100= 01% This is important as One can use detailed number and can approximate Final Total. My another cross analysis of data will further clarify this

Comparing Avg is very very misleading also See Guru vs D2 collections in mumbai Circuit mumbai 67% Nasik 60% Pune 89% Nasik 60% Ahamdabad 114% Jamnagar 67 % but can one say that 67% of mumbai is equaly important to 90% of Pune. Nasik 60% can be compared to 114% of Ahemdabad. This can lead to very very manipulated numbers. So Simply, Here maths is not that simple, but comparing many numbers and trends from different regions one can put a figure for the region. hummm more work to do in next few days..... I am thinking of making some formula to calculate the total figure taking many facts like territory, prints, city size and capacity, single screen or multiplex.. Give me time guys .....

From Times of India There was Gandhi, there was Nehru and then there was Guru Kant Desai, one more name that needs to be added amongst the roster that boasts ‘Architects of India.’ And in case you still don’t know who Guru Bhai is, let’s just leave you with a few FAQs. Guru Bhai was India’s first textile magnate who grew from humble origins and dreamt of setting up a factory that was bigger than Burma Shell. He towered over the Mumbai skyline with his polyester fabric that became the national fabric in a post-khadi, pre-globalisation era. And Mani Ratnam takes up this ‘inspired’ tale to script an ode to this messiah of the middle class, who broke the rules, twisted the system, rubbished the red tape and raced ahead, with impunity. Yes, Mani has dared to present the top industrialist as a man who introduced corporate crime in the lexicon of Indian industry. Guru Bhai’s business mantra was murky. He bribed politicians, smuggled machinery, evaded sundry taxes and used people for profit. In short, he was the perfect capitalist who created wealth any which way, even if it involved marrying a woman for the dowry she would bring. His justification? The wealth was for the public, because he was part of the public and if he hadn’t broken the law, the great Indian middle class (the millions of shareholders who grew rich along with him) would still be non-existent. And that’s where the film slips. Although the director valiantly lifts the lid off corporate crime, he suddenly cowers in the end and creates a hero out a man who justifies every fraud in the name of public good. It is the moral ambivalence of the film which somehow leaves you dissatisfied, for isn’t all cinema meant to be a moral fable? Till the very end, you seem to keep remembering what Guru Bhai’s brother-in-law said when he left him midway in his grandiose ventures. The disgusted brother-in-law walked off branding Guru as a complete mercenary who cared only about money, not people. Guru had no answers for him! Nor for us. Cinematically, the film is quintessential Mani. The frames are stupendous with Rajiv Menon’s camera working wonders, whether it be Mumbai, Pondicherry or Istanbul. The combination of AR Rahman and Gulzar create magic with melody and Abhishek Bachchan puts his heart and soul into a dream role that sees him grow from a gawky teenager to a wizened adult. Sometimes however, it does seem the role demands too much from him, specially in the climax which ends up ekdum thanda. Aishwarya too is just okay and fails to register the growth in her character. The first half of the film is intensely dramatic as it traces the rise of simpleton Guru from a small time salesman in Istanbul to a textile honcho in Mumbai who just wanted to do ‘bijnas’. It is the second half which becomes prolonged and repetitive with the drama being reduced to a conflict between the archetypal capitalist and the communist — a newspaper owner with leftist leanings (Mithun Chakraborty) and his star reporter (Madhavan) who doggedly follows the unveil-Guru beat. In between, he falls in love with his employee’s dying daughter (what’s Vidya Balan doing in a wheelchair?) and takes off to make dal takda for her. He’s a crusader in all kind of roles, you see! In the end, Guru is an important film as it tackles a fresh subject and raises a pertinent query about India’s accelerating corporate juggernaut.

From NDTV: There are so many kites in this sky. Every Friday these kites try to fly high on sky, try to cut other kites. One of these kites is flying since last 30 years and still flying no one had been able to cut this kite. But these days one kite is flying very high. This is the kite of Hrithik Roshan. He is superstar of today’s generation. 30-year-old kite has now bring one small kite also. This kite wants to cut down Hrithik kite. But does not look like that it will ever cut that kite. Hrithik knows when to fly his kite. He does not come out on every second day to fly his kite. He has the ability to judge the airflow and conditions. He knows when the sky will be shining. So no doubt that his kite is today’s winning and best kite and has the ability to be the one of best kite ever flown in this sky