BOX OFFICE Analysis : Apne

Step 3: These centers are not chosen according to

sampling method (most likely) . Now considering

step 2 sample as complete set, I take three systematic

samples and three random samples to check that did

samples represent my set.

so if, this is big assumption,that the centers picked by taran's are unbiased(chances are there as not a single Punjab center is there) ,then the Apne may be between 56-68% of NL( 10% variance). i.e. 8.9 Cr to 10.9 Cr.

Main Assumptions: 1) Movie released in equal number of similar centers. 2) Prints are in proportion 3) That the centers picked by taran's are unbiased(chances are there as not a single Punjab center is there) Random Sample Number Table Used from Site:

http://www.health.state.pa.us/hpa/stats/techassist/probability.htm

From last 10 days, I was just thinking why this happen ...... A girl child was born in small tiny village in poor farmer family.She was first child of parents. They called her Gyana,"some one full of knowledge". Sooner she had three younger siblings. Two brothers and one sister. But some thing bad happen: mother of child died during the birth of youngest brother. Father remarry after some time as it’s become difficult for him to handle four children alone. Stepmother came into family. Life again starts moving.. Few years’ latter faith again struck. Sister dies due to some illness. She console herself and again starts living life. She was now around 16.Father fixed her marriage to a nice looking army guy. Looking for future happiness she marry but happiness was not for her again, husband dies during job and now she was child widow. Father took her back, did not want his daughter’s life destroyed, even thought about remarry her. But succumbs to pressure from society. Girl accepted the faith, tried to find happiness in her siblings. She starts bringing her siblings up. Life keeps moving. 20 years latter, her favorite real youngest brother was going to marry. She again looks happier. Did I miss some thing earlier? She was ravishing beauty. Two days before marriage, her brother comes home but not as normal guy, but some one who has lost his mental balance. Faith goes against her again. How sad she has been only she had known or her God. She had, till now learnt to hide her pain and unhappiness. Father married the brother but he never cures till he died, much latter. Her nephews and neices from him were now her life. Life keeps moving, seeing her brother tied in chain or seeing him beating his wife and children were not shock to her any more. Meanwhile her other brother, his family, family of her mentally imbalance brother, all goes against father and stepmother. For them its stepmother who was responsible and they moved out of home. She did not move away from her father, though she remains loyal to her brothers also. She never even put allegations on her stepbrother, her third and youngest brother. Now she was an old woman of around 60.Her father died. She continues to live with her stepmother. Both were now like old friend, whatever one can say but they have some kind of understanding and respect for the other. After 10 years latter, her nephew, elder son of her mentally imbalanced brother died in car accident. Life had struck again. Chances of finding happiness lost again. Two years latter brother also dies. She had regret of not seeing his face last time because his family did not inform her regarding taking him to hospital. She moves with her elder brother now. Daughter from her other nephew now was center of her life (from two of her real brothers, one does not had any child. Youngest mentally imbalanced brother had four children, two sons and two daughters. Elder brother adopted youngest son.) Till at age of 74 she keeps doing all work of home, from making food to working in fields. March 24, 2007: Her nephew, son of stepbrother, asked her why her face looks twisted. She said I don’t know. She looks very ill. But still she was doing all household cores. March 25,2007: Found that she has a brain tumor. Small tumor. She was not informed about it, neither the options nor implications. Nothing. March 26-April 05: Her conditions deteriorates but.. April 06 2007: Early in morning on Good Friday she dies. There are lots of why in her story. But the one, “WHY” which is hurting me, is that why she had not given the chance to live her end of life according to her wishes. Why she was not informed. May be she had not lived much better, may be she had died on the same day, but she had right to know. She may have many last wishes. She was not asking even for monetary help as she had lot of money, from family pension of her husband, which is hardly withdrew, and property from in laws. She deserves better, much better. But faith betrayed her in her death also. But OH RAMA, Please Provide her Peace. Please provide her all love she deserves. ( My father is her youngest stepbrother)

Boxoffice trend analysis calculation can be very misleadings. Now indiafm.com ,after first week of guru reported certain centers. on basis of those centers,as I had shown in privious articles, I obtained the median of difference 40%.After applying this median I said that Guru will be 60 % of D2 so first week total can be approx 21 cr. After few weeks Indiafm.com reported other centers for guru as well. For the same reported centers (new ones) D2 total is 21033784 If i apply my earlier estimation total for guru for these centers should have been 12620270 But the total for these centers as per indiafm is 10273563 This total is 22% less than the approximation. These centers also shows that median of difference is 62%. means guru is just 38 % of D2 if we consider this new set of data. If i consider all same centers(centers reported earlier and latter on, new median comes out to 57%.It means makes Guru just 43% of D2.which is 15Cr So thats why the trend analysis can be misleading. But it also points out that 21 Cr for Guru in first week is immpossible and will be rearest condition. Guru was dull as compare to d2 in these small centers. May be BOI total 18 cr is right estimation.

Adjusting Guru Week One Box office Analysis:Considering No. of Prints In One of my Privious article, I calculated Guru Week One by comparing it with Dhoom 2 babul LRM and BB. In that Article I approximated Guru Week 1 as 20-21 Cr. In that article No of cinemas and prints have not taken into account. Another Major flaw was that as data is skewed (skewness of difference is 47,which is very high for the % of values.) So median should be the right parameter to us instead of avg. So I am again recalculating Totals based upon whatever data is available from Taran's indiafm.com Two assumptions taking into consideration are: 1) Both Films are shown in similar centers. 2)All prints in those centers are reported or proportion of reported print is same. For example if one movie is shown in Delhi with 100 prints and other is shown in delhi with 50 prints.Then either data is shown for 100 and 50 prints respectively or in same proportion that is 2:1. If the First assumption is true, only then we can calculate total on basis of trend obtained from detailed data.for example if one film is shown in 100 cites other in 50 cities only.Detailed data is available for 50 cities for two films to calculate difference. Now one can not apply the trend obtained on another cities for first movie as second movie is not shown in other 50 cities. Print issue has no problem as such if for reported centers shows data in proportion of actual prints circulated in city. One can obtain an approximate figure if one compare the same movie with 5 to 10 other movies. Guru Vs Dhoom2 Earlier Figure:22.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:21 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 40) As D2 was indeed released at more centers than Guru (D2 approx 700 cinemas, Guru 450 Cinemas), the 21 Cr will be highly unlikely situation for Guru to acheive) Guru Vs LRM: Earlier Figure:20.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:21 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 00) Guru Vs BB: Earlier Figure:20Cr Recalculated on base of median:19.7 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 06) Guru Vs Babul: Earlier Figure:19.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:16.6 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is -57) SEI WEEK ONE: Guru Vs SEI: Median of Difference (Guru-SEI)=20% SEI WEEK ONE=16.8Cr Guru WEEK ONE to WEEK THREE week one == 21 cr week 2 =8.4 cr (Median of diff. week1 and week2 =60%) week 3=4.8 cr (Median of diff. week1 and week2 =42%) Total Estimation by me = 21+8.4+4.8=34 Cr Total Estimation by BOI=32.7 Cr Total Estimation by IBOS=38.5 Cr

Guru Week 3== 5.23Cr My perdiction in article Guru week 3: B O Analysis (IBOSNETWORK.COM looks fake)was On basis of avg:5.6Cr considering Confidenced level(95%) and mean=4.8Cr-7.8Cr So the figures put by BOI looks more accurate and authenticated.My perdiction was calculated by considering detailed data given by indiafm.com.

Rediff.com (I luv the Heading) January 31, 2007 16:53 IST Surprised? We were wondering if we should post Big B's picture as Abhishek's voice. Abhishek seems to have lost his voice these days. Why else would his dad do all the talking for him after he got engaged to Ash? Papa B also doesn't seem to tire of saying that his son has excelled as an actor, post-Guru. He mentioned in an interview that when he was in Bangkok recently, a spectator referred to him as Abhishek's father. That, for him, was the proudest moment of his life. Abhishek is a good actor, there is little doubt about that. But should Papa B promote his son so much? Please comment.

Taking average drop 41% Total approximation (BOI)=.59*9.5= 5.6 Cr Considering Lower limit of Confidence Level(95%) Total approximation (BOI)=.85*9.6=7.8 Cr Considering Upper limit of Confidence Level(95%) Total approximation (BOI)=.5*9.6=4.8 Cr IBOS approximation is not carried out as they had put the figures.Which seems very high(looks like taking into considering the lower limit of Confidence level).All of major centers has been there is Indiafm list. from where ibos is getting other 3 cr Rs. is strange.Because other centers does not have that much potential and film is not even average in these centers