Why box office Trend Analysis Calculations can be misleading
Boxoffice trend analysis calculation can be very misleadings. Now indiafm.com ,after first week of guru reported certain centers. on basis of those centers,as I had shown in privious articles, I obtained the median of difference 40%.After applying this median I said that Guru will be 60 % of D2 so first week total can be approx 21 cr. After few weeks Indiafm.com reported other centers for guru as well. For the same reported centers (new ones) D2 total is 21033784 If i apply my earlier estimation total for guru for these centers should have been 12620270 But the total for these centers as per indiafm is 10273563 This total is 22% less than the approximation. These centers also shows that median of difference is 62%. means guru is just 38 % of D2 if we consider this new set of data. If i consider all same centers(centers reported earlier and latter on, new median comes out to 57%.It means makes Guru just 43% of D2.which is 15Cr So thats why the trend analysis can be misleading. But it also points out that 21 Cr for Guru in first week is immpossible and will be rearest condition. Guru was dull as compare to d2 in these small centers. May be BOI total 18 cr is right estimation.