Adjusting Guru Week One Box office Analysis:Considering No. of Prints In One of my Privious article, I calculated Guru Week One by comparing it with Dhoom 2 babul LRM and BB. In that Article I approximated Guru Week 1 as 20-21 Cr. In that article No of cinemas and prints have not taken into account. Another Major flaw was that as data is skewed (skewness of difference is 47,which is very high for the % of values.) So median should be the right parameter to us instead of avg. So I am again recalculating Totals based upon whatever data is available from Taran's indiafm.com Two assumptions taking into consideration are: 1) Both Films are shown in similar centers. 2)All prints in those centers are reported or proportion of reported print is same. For example if one movie is shown in Delhi with 100 prints and other is shown in delhi with 50 prints.Then either data is shown for 100 and 50 prints respectively or in same proportion that is 2:1. If the First assumption is true, only then we can calculate total on basis of trend obtained from detailed data.for example if one film is shown in 100 cites other in 50 cities only.Detailed data is available for 50 cities for two films to calculate difference. Now one can not apply the trend obtained on another cities for first movie as second movie is not shown in other 50 cities. Print issue has no problem as such if for reported centers shows data in proportion of actual prints circulated in city. One can obtain an approximate figure if one compare the same movie with 5 to 10 other movies. Guru Vs Dhoom2 Earlier Figure:22.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:21 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 40) As D2 was indeed released at more centers than Guru (D2 approx 700 cinemas, Guru 450 Cinemas), the 21 Cr will be highly unlikely situation for Guru to acheive) Guru Vs LRM: Earlier Figure:20.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:21 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 00) Guru Vs BB: Earlier Figure:20Cr Recalculated on base of median:19.7 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is 06) Guru Vs Babul: Earlier Figure:19.5Cr Recalculated on base of median:16.6 Cr (Median of %diff of same reported centers is -57) SEI WEEK ONE: Guru Vs SEI: Median of Difference (Guru-SEI)=20% SEI WEEK ONE=16.8Cr Guru WEEK ONE to WEEK THREE week one == 21 cr week 2 =8.4 cr (Median of diff. week1 and week2 =60%) week 3=4.8 cr (Median of diff. week1 and week2 =42%) Total Estimation by me = 21+8.4+4.8=34 Cr Total Estimation by BOI=32.7 Cr Total Estimation by IBOS=38.5 Cr
Nice work Akshat!
Posted on 7:36 PM